2022 Richmond RE Overview
Richmond County median single-family dwelling costs have lastly fallen after 10 straight years of development, with costs down 8.9% and gross sales down 9.3% in 2022. However these numbers do not inform the entire story, because the market has been a story of two half.
Richmond dwelling gross sales comparability desk exhibits ends in 2022 in comparison with earlier years damaged down by quarter.
The info was collected from the San Francisco Affiliation of Realtors A number of Itemizing Service and consists of single-family dwelling gross sales within the Richmond, Lake, Presidio Heights, Jordan Park, Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain and Sea Cliff areas.
In 2022, there have been 196 gross sales in comparison with 216 for 2021 and 212 for 2020, a lower of 9.3% from 2021 and a lower of seven.5% from 2020. The annual median value comparability exhibits a lower of 8.9% year-over-year in comparison with a 20.2% enhance from 2020 to 2021. The quantity of selling time to promote a house was round 11-15 days for 2020, 2021 and 2022, which all point out to an excellent market. Nevertheless, these annual figures don’t inform the entire story.
In the event you analyze the connected graph, it exhibits that a lot of the gross sales occurred within the first half of 2022, and all the rise was within the first six months. Within the latter half of the yr, gross sales slowed, with median costs dropping from round $2,587,500 within the second quarter to $1,776,000, a 31% drop! To place that into perspective, we’re again to mid-2019 costs, so we have misplaced about three years of appreciation.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t imply that dwelling costs fell by 31%, however somewhat that we bought extra lower-priced properties in Richmond County somewhat than costlier ones.
In 2022, main inventory indexes are down about 8 to 31% on the time of writing, with a downward development and excessive volatility all year long. The patron confidence index fell, then rose barely on the finish of the yr.
Our unemployment fee has fallen from its peak on the top of COVID and is at the moment round 4% in California and a pair of% in San Francisco.
The rate of interest rose from about 3% originally of the yr to 7% on the finish of the yr for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Inflation was within the vary of 8%, however is at the moment reasonable.
House foreclosures are nonetheless just about non-existent; nonetheless, the delinquency fee for mortgages is rising which is able to inevitably result in foreclosures.
Our actual property market did very nicely originally of the yr with a number of provides and bids above asking costs, after which in Could it began to decelerate, coinciding with the rise in rates of interest. The feds, in an effort to gradual inflation, started elevating the federal funds fee by .25% in March, then by .5% in Could, then a extra aggressive enhance of .75% from June to November, and one other .5% in December for a complete of 4.2% in 2022. They signaled on the finish of the yr that there could be one other enhance of .75% in 2023. The quantity of the rise roughly interprets to about 20-25% much less borrowing energy for purchasers.
An attention-grabbing query that’s typically requested is: “Why did consumers determine to purchase originally of the yr realizing that costs would fall?” The reply lies in the truth that they’ll preserve these traditionally low rates of interest for 30 years, which is the rationale for the bidding wars originally of the yr. Now that the market has turned, consumers will pay a cheaper price for properties, however their month-to-month funds could be the identical or increased.
Domestically, demand in San Francisco and Richmond County will proceed to be superb. Rates of interest appear to have stopped proper right here. The refinancing market has dried up and purchases have fallen, so there’s now much less competitors for funds, which can trigger rates of interest to truly come down a bit.
My prediction for 2023 is that we are going to proceed to have a slower housing market than in earlier years. It will likely be a really balanced market with extra bargaining energy for consumers. Stock will likely be fairly tight as house owners who don’t must promote will seemingly select to carry on to their properties till the market improves.
Subsequently, if you’re considering of shopping for in the true property market, there will likely be alternatives. In the event you plan to promote, remember the fact that there’s a scarcity of provide and, in case you value and promote appropriately, it is best to get a reasonably good value. In the event you’re seeking to reposition your actual property portfolio, now is a superb time to take action and make the most of much less competitors.
We want you all a cheerful new yr and all the perfect in 2023!
John M. Lee is a Compass dealer specializing within the Richmond and Sundown neighborhoods. In case you have actual property questions, please name him at 415-465-0505 or e-mail him at johnlee@isellsf.com.
Richmond dwelling gross sales comparability
(per quarter)
in 2020
| # of gross sales | common grade | Medium value | Days in the marketplace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 2,291,752 {dollars} | 2,075,000 {dollars} | 13 |
| 37 | 2,190,635 | 1,940,000 | 15 |
| 71 | 2,443,930 | 2,280,000 | 14 |
| 62 | 2,795,909 | 2,077,500 | 12 |
| 212 | 2,472,909 | 2,100,000 | 13 |
| 22.5%* | 1.2%* | 0%* | -7.1%* |
in 2021
| # of gross sales | common grade | Medium value | Days in the marketplace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 335 | 2,688,097 {dollars} | 2,460,000 {dollars} | 10 |
| 53 | 2,420,094 | 2,305,000 | 9 |
| 50 | 2,981,236 | 2,650,000 | 11 |
| 78 | 2,844,640 | 2,710,000 | 12 |
| 216 | 2,746,723 | 2,525,000 | 11 |
| 1.9%* | 11.1%* | 20.2%* | -15.4%* |
in 2022
| # of gross sales | common grade | Medium value | Days in the marketplace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 2,799,549 | 2,350,000 | 13 |
| 68 | 2,856,041 | 2,587,500 | 11 |
| 43 | 2,303,753 | 2,175,000 | 14 |
| 38 | 2,436,088 | 1,776,000 | 14 |
| 196 | 2,639,910 | 2,300,000 | 13 |
| -9.3%* | -3.9%* | -8.9%* | -18.2%* |
